The developmental dynamics of terrorist organizations

We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist events worldwide from 1968-2008 and a simulation model of organizational dynamics, we show that the production of violent events tends to accelerate with increasing size and experience. This coupling of frequency, experience and size arises from a fundamental positive feedback loop in which attacks lead to growth which leads to increased production of new attacks. In contrast, event severity is independent of both size and experience. Thus larger, more experienced organizations are more deadly because they attack more frequently, not because their attacks are more deadly, and large events are equally likely to come from large and small organizations. These results hold across political ideologies and time, suggesting that the frequency and severity of terrorism may be constrained by fundamental processes.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, supplementary materia

Dynamic Community Detection into Analyzing of Wildfires Events

The study and comprehension of complex systems are crucial intellectual and scientific challenges of the 21st century. In this scenario, network science has emerged as a mathematical tool to support the study of such systems. Examples include environmental processes such as wildfires, which are known for their considerable impact on human life. However, there is a considerable lack of studies of wildfire from a network science perspective. Here, employing the chronological network concept -- a temporal network where nodes are linked if two consecutive events occur between them -- we investigate the information that dynamic community structures reveal about the wildfires' dynamics. Particularly, we explore a two-phase dynamic community detection approach, i.e., we applied the Louvain algorithm on a series of snapshots. Then we used the Jaccard similarity coefficient to match communities across adjacent snapshots. Experiments with the MODIS dataset of fire events in the Amazon basing were conducted. Our results show that the dynamic communities can reveal wildfire patterns observed throughout the year.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figure

UK experience of liver transplantation for erythropoietic protoporphyria

Erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) is characterised by excess production of free protoporphyrin from the bone marrow, most commonly due to deficiency of the enzyme ferrochelatase. Excess protoporphyrin gives rise to the cutaneous photosensitivity characteristic of the disease, and in a minority of patients leads to end-stage liver disease necessitating liver transplantation (LT). There is limited information regarding the timing, impact and long-term outcome of LT in such patients, thus we aimed to identify the indications and outcomes of all transplants performed for EPP in the UK using data from the UK Transplant Registry. Between 1987 and 2009, five patients underwent LT for EPP liver disease. Median follow-up was 60 months, and there were two deaths at 44 and 95 months from causes unrelated to liver disease. The remaining recipients are alive at 22.4 years, 61 months and 55 months after transplant. A high rate of postoperative biliary stricturing requiring multiple biliary interventions was observed. Recurrent EPP-liver disease occurred in 4/5 (80%) of patients but graft failure has not been observed. Given the role of biliary obstruction in inducing EPP-mediated liver damage, we suggest that consideration should be given for construction of a Roux loop at the time of transplant. Thus we demonstrate that although EPP liver transplant recipients have a good long-term survival, comparable to patients undergoing LT for other indications, biliary complications and disease recurrence are almost universal, and bone marrow transplantation should be considered where possible

Effects of rose hip intake on risk markers of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease: a randomized, double-blind, cross-over investigation in obese persons

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:In studies performed in mice, rose hip powder has been shown to both prevent and reverse high-fat diet-induced obesity and glucose intolerance as well as reduce plasma levels of cholesterol. The aim of this study was to investigate whether daily intake of rose hip powder over 6 weeks exerts beneficial metabolic effects in obese individuals.SUBJECTS/METHODS:A total of 31 obese individuals with normal or impaired glucose tolerance were enrolled in a randomized, double-blind, cross-over study in which metabolic effects of daily intake of a rose hip powder drink over 6 weeks was compared with a control drink. Body weight, glucose tolerance, blood pressure, blood lipids and markers of inflammation were assessed in the subjects.RESULTS:In comparison with the control drink, 6 weeks of daily consumption of the rose hip drink resulted in a significant reduction of systolic blood pressure (-3.4%; P=0.021), total plasma cholesterol (-4.9%; P=0.0018), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (-6.0%; P=0.012) and LDL/HDL ratio (-6.5%; P=0.041). The Reynolds risk assessment score for cardiovascular disease was decreased in the rose hip group compared with the control group (-17%; P=0.007). Body weight, diastolic blood pressure, glucose tolerance, and plasma levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, incretins and markers of inflammation did not differ between the two groups.CONCLUSIONS:Daily consumption of 40 g of rose hip powder for 6 weeks can significantly reduce cardiovascular risk in obese people through lowering of systolic blood pressure and plasma cholesterol levels.European Journal of Clinical Nutrition advance online publication, 14 December 2011; doi:10.1038/ejcn.2011.203

MyosinVIIa Interacts with Twinfilin-2 at the Tips of Mechanosensory Stereocilia in the Inner Ear

In vertebrates hearing is dependent upon the microvilli-like mechanosensory stereocilia and their length gradation. The staircase-like organization of the stereocilia bundle is dynamically maintained by variable actin turnover rates. Two unconventional myosins were previously implicated in stereocilia length regulation but the mechanisms of their action remain unknown. MyosinXVa is expressed in stereocilia tips at levels proportional to stereocilia length and its absence produces staircase-like bundles of very short stereocilia. MyosinVIIa localizes to the tips of the shorter stereocilia within bundles, and when absent, the stereocilia are abnormally long. We show here that myosinVIIa interacts with twinfilin-2, an actin binding protein, which inhibits actin polymerization at the barbed end of the filament, and that twinfilin localization in stereocilia overlaps with myosinVIIa. Exogenous expression of myosinVIIa in fibroblasts results in a reduced number of filopodia and promotes accumulation of twinfilin-2 at the filopodia tips. We hypothesize that the newly described interaction between myosinVIIa and twinfilin-2 is responsible for the establishment and maintenance of slower rates of actin turnover in shorter stereocilia, and that interplay between complexes of myosinVIIa/twinfilin-2 and myosinXVa/whirlin is responsible for stereocilia length gradation within the bundle staircase

Leisure time physical activity in middle age predicts the metabolic syndrome in old age: results of a 28-year follow-up of men in the Oslo study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Data are scarce on the long term relationship between leisure time physical activity, smoking and development of metabolic syndrome and diabetes. We wanted to investigate the relationship between leisure time physical activity and smoking measured in middle age and the occurrence of the metabolic syndrome and diabetes in men that participated in two cardiovascular screenings of the Oslo Study 28 years apart.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Men residing in Oslo and born in 1923–32 (n = 16 209) were screened for cardiovascular diseases and risk factors in 1972/3. Of the original cohort, those who also lived in same area in 2000 were invited to a repeat screening examination, attended by 6 410 men. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to a modification of the National Cholesterol Education Program criteria. Leisure time physical activity, smoking, educational attendance and the presence of diabetes were self-reported.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Leisure time physical activity decreased between the first and second screening and tracked only moderately between the two time points (Spearman's ρ = 0.25). Leisure time physical activity adjusted for age and educational attendance was a significant predictor of both the metabolic syndrome and diabetes in 2000 (odds ratio for moderately vigorous versus sedentary/light activity was 0.65 [95% CI, 0.54–0.80] for the metabolic syndrome and 0.68 [0.52–0.91] for diabetes) (test for trend P < 0.05). However, when adjusted for more factors measured in 1972/3 including glucose, triglycerides, body mass index, treated hypertension and systolic blood pressure these associations were markedly attenuated. Smoking was associated with the metabolic syndrome but not with diabetes in 2000.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Physical activity during leisure recorded in middle age prior to the current waves of obesity and diabetes had an independent predictive association with the presence of the metabolic syndrome but not significantly so with diabetes 28 years later in life, when the subjects were elderly.</p

Diabetes susceptibility in ethnic minority groups from Turkey, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Pakistan compared with Norwegians - the association with adiposity is strongest for ethnic minority women

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The difference in diabetes susceptibility by ethnic background is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to assess the association between adiposity and diabetes in four ethnic minority groups compared with Norwegians, and take into account confounding by socioeconomic position.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data from questionnaires, physical examinations and serum samples were analysed for 30-to 60-year-olds from population-based cross-sectional surveys of Norwegians and four immigrant groups, comprising 4110 subjects born in Norway (n = 1871), Turkey (n = 387), Vietnam (n = 553), Sri Lanka (n = 879) and Pakistan (n = 420). Known and screening-detected diabetes cases were identified. The adiposity measures BMI, waist circumference and waist-hip ratio (WHR) were categorized into levels of adiposity. Gender-specific logistic regression models were applied to estimate the risk of diabetes for the ethnic minority groups adjusted for adiposity and income-generating work, years of education and body height used as a proxy for childhood socioeconomic position.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The age standardized diabetes prevalence differed significantly between the ethnic groups (women/men): Pakistan: 26.4% (95% CI 20.1-32.7)/20.0% (14.9-25.2); Sri Lanka: 22.5% (18.1-26.9)/20.7% (17.3-24.2), Turkey: 11.9% (7.2-16.7)/12.0% (7.6-16.4), Vietnam: 8.1% (5.1-11.2)/10.4% (6.6-14.1) and Norway: 2.7% (1.8-3.7)/6.4% (4.6-8.1). The prevalence increased more in the minority groups than in Norwegians with increasing levels of BMI, WHR and waist circumference, and most for women. Highly significant ethnic differences in the age-standardized prevalence of diabetes were found for both genders in all categories of all adiposity measures (<it>p </it>< 0.001). The Odds Ratio (OR) for diabetes adjusted for age, WHR, body height, education and income-generating work with Norwegians as reference was 2.9 (1.30-6.36) for Turkish, 2.7 (1.29-5.76) for Vietnamese, 8.0 (4.19-15.14) for Sri Lankan and 8.3 (4.37-15.58) for Pakistani women. Men from Sri Lanka and Pakistan had identical ORs (3.0 (1.80-5.12)).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A high prevalence of diabetes was found in 30-to 60-year-olds from ethnic minority groups in Oslo, with those from Sri Lanka and Pakistan at highest risk. For all levels of adiposity, a higher susceptibility for diabetes was observed for ethnic minority groups compared with Norwegians. The association persisted after adjustment for socioeconomic position for all minority women and for men from Sri Lanka and Pakistan.</p

Implementation of child-centred outcome measures in routine paediatric healthcare practice: a systematic review

Background: Person-centred outcome measures (PCOMs) are commonly used in routine adult healthcare to measure and improve outcomes, but less attention has been paid to PCOMs in children’s services. The aim of this systematic review is to identify and synthesise existing evidence of the determinants, strategies, and mechanisms that influence the implementation of PCOMs into paediatric healthcare practice. Methods: The review was conducted and reported in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. Databased searched included CINAHL, Embase, Medline, and PsycInfo. Google scholar was also searched for grey literature on 25th March 2022. Studies were included if the setting was a children’s healthcare service, investigating the implementation or use of an outcome measure or screening tool in healthcare practice, and reported outcomes relating to use of a measure. Data were tabulated and thematically analysed through deductive coding to the constructs of the adapted-Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). Results were presented as a narrative synthesis, and a logic model developed. Results: We retained 69 studies, conducted across primary (n = 14), secondary (n = 13), tertiary (n = 37), and community (n = 8) healthcare settings, including both child self-report (n = 46) and parent-proxy (n = 47) measures. The most frequently reported barriers to measure implementation included staff lack of knowledge about how the measure may improve care and outcomes; the complexity of using and implementing the measure; and a lack of resources to support implementation and its continued use including funding and staff. The most frequently reported facilitators of implementation and continued use include educating and training staff and families on: how to implement and use the measure; the advantages of using PCOMs over current practice; and the benefit their use has on patient care and outcomes. The resulting logic model presents the mechanisms through which strategies can reduce the barriers to implementation and support the use of PCOMs in practice. Conclusions: These findings can be used to support the development of context-specific implementation plans through a combination of existing strategies. This will enable the implementation of PCOMs into routine paediatric healthcare practice to empower settings to better identify and improve child-centred outcomes. Trial registration: Prospero CRD 42022330013

Determination of the number of wounded nucleons in Pb+Pb collisions at 158 A GeV/c

The charged particle multiplicity distributions measured by two experiments, WA97 and NA57, in Pb+Pb collisions at 158 A GeV/c have been analyzed in the framework of the wounded nucleon model (WNM). We obtain a good description of the data within the centrality range of our samples. This allows us to make use of the measured multiplicities to estimate the number of wounded nucleons of the collision

Behavioural Risk Factors in Mid-Life Associated with Successful Ageing, Disability, Dementia and Frailty in Later Life: A Rapid Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Smoking, alcohol consumption, poor diet and low levels of physical activity significantly contribute to the burden of illness in developed countries. Whilst the links between specific and multiple risk behaviours and individual chronic conditions are well documented, the impact of these behaviours in mid-life across a range of later life outcomes has yet to be comprehensively assessed. This review aimed to provide an overview of behavioural risk factors in mid-life that are associated with successful ageing and the primary prevention or delay of disability, dementia, frailty and non-communicable chronic conditions. METHODS: A literature search was conducted to identify cohort studies published in English since 2000 up to Dec 2014. Multivariate analyses and a minimum follow-up of five years were required for inclusion. Two reviewers screened titles, abstracts and papers independently. Studies were assessed for quality. Evidence was synthesised by mid-life behavioural risk for a range of late life outcomes. FINDINGS: This search located 10,338 individual references, of which 164 are included in this review. Follow-up data ranged from five years to 36 years. Outcomes include dementia, frailty, disability and cardiovascular disease. There is consistent evidence of beneficial associations between mid-life physical activity, healthy ageing and disease outcomes. Across all populations studied there is consistent evidence that mid-life smoking has a detrimental effect on health. Evidence specific to alcohol consumption was mixed. Limited, but supportive, evidence was available relating specifically to mid-life diet, leisure and social activities or health inequalities. CONCLUSIONS: There is consistent evidence of associations between mid-life behaviours and a range of late life outcomes. The promotion of physical activity, healthy diet and smoking cessation in all mid-life populations should be encouraged for successful ageing and the prevention of disability and chronic disease.This work was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), invitation to tender reference DDER 42013, and supported by the National Institute for Health Research School for Public Health Research. The scope of the work was defined by NICE and the protocol was agreed with NICE prior to the start of work. The funders had no role in data analysis, preparation of the manuscript or decision to publish.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from PLOS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.014440